How To Use Important Time Frames To Time The Market

Here ’s a pretty important chapter…time frames intraday…I use these time frames to gauge how far I want to hold my positions…these are pretty important so read carefully..

9:30AM
The obvious time frame is of importance. Again the stock you bought could be at the very peak at 9:30AM. Intraday highs are set right at the open, and if you see a large fade, try to grab the profit ASAP if you have it. Typically if it’s 1% (or 2% on margin) by 9:30-9:32AM ET I’d grab it if I begin to see the slightest fade from the highs.

10:00AM “Big Guy Buy Time”
If a stock you bought survived the 9:30-9:59AM and is right at the highs set in that frame, there’s a good chance it’ll sustain past 11:00AM and into 1:00PM ET. I’d say 60/40 if this occurs. The big buying can occur at this time, and economic reports are released right at this time. It can get dramatic right at 10:00AM ET.

10:30AM “Wavegenius sell time”

If I’ve held from the previous day up to 10:30AM and the stock is at the high, I sell right at 10:30AM and wait for a new setup. Why 10:30AM? Stocks can survive a sell off up to 10:30AM MAX typically. The very peak occurs frequently at 10:30AM, and I usually like to sell right at this time. If it’s survived 9:30-10:30, I’m out.

1 PM-2:30PM “Big Guy Sell Time”
I’m sure you already know about this time frame, but it seems like 7 times out of 10 the big guys start the big selling programs at this time. It could be because they want to go to lunch, have meetings or whatever, but for some bizarre reason it just seems to happen frequently. If I’ve held into 12:59PM, I’d sell right before 1:00PM hits. If the market or stock you own can survive this time frame, you could be sitting pretty into…

3:05 PM “Big Guy Decision Time”
This is when I usually buy. Not at 3:00PM but 3:05. It just seems to work in the all the years I’ve been trading. 3:00PM the big guys could un- leash a fury on the market with major sell or buy programs, I usually wait until the last second like I would on EBay when I’m bidding on some- thing I want. I want the stock, but only if it closes at the highs in this time frame

UPDATE 2013: NEW TIME FRAME –

3:35PM can also be very important these days, because big bullish ral- lies have evaporated on the “big dumb guy with a lot of money” lurking in the shadows…keep in mind that this one period from 3:35-4PM can provide THE MOST volatile wave patterns in such a small time frame. I’ve seen 10-20 S&P fades from this period and placing strategic stops near .618 to contain your profit or minimize losses is key.

Here’s a biggie time frame to note: FED MEETINGS.

Trading Fed Meetings

I know people who ONLY trade during fed meetings and the rate an- nouncement reaction. It could be highly profitable, yes, but if you’re wrong it could be dramatic. The move can be huge. What happens be- tween 2:15-3:05PM after the rate move is announced is pure insanity.

The indices are VERY wild during this fifty-minute period, and it’s not a good idea to jump in during this specific time frame. My strategy is to wait until exactly 3:06PM ET when the waves settle down. If the indices are trading at the highs, it would setup an upward Wave 3, and I’d golong.

But if at 3:06PM ET it’s trading near the lows, I would avoid the mar- ket altogether. Typically everything settles down by that time, but I feel more comfortable trading long side only. If a fed meeting reaction is to the upside and it’s off a 3rd wave pattern break, it could potentially be a powerful and high percentage trade.

Also something big to note…is knowing the seasonal monthly patterns every year…it’s not an exact science, but strangely enough it works very frequently…here are the best and worst months to trade:

Monthly Time Frames

Important Seasonal Time Frame – October to April
The strongest time of the year starts in the middle of October and ends around April to May. It’s been proven historically that the market outper- forms the May to September time frame. It’s “sell in May and go away.”

My worst trading months have been in the summer in the past decade and my best trading months the winter. Typically a large percentage of my gains have come in October to December. Why? If the market is “up” for the year in
October, there’s an upward bias as a result of “window dressing.”

The big funds want to show a great performance for at least that quar- ter and will buy the best stocks, typically tech leaders, to pump their port- folios and show their clients that they’ve been holding the leaders, and the appearance that it was for the entire year. The leaders can REALLY move big time in this time period, and even buying dips can prove to be profitable.

The Best Months Of The Year
The best time to trade, if you’re going to pick a couple months during the year is middle of October, November and December. Again, the windowdressing phenomenon helps boost stocks in this period, if the market was up for the year headed into October.

My huge QCOM trades in 1999, for example, were buoyed by the window dressing effect, and trading during this period can be almost mindless. There are times when you could simply wait until earnings come out in October, and pick the best stocks with the best earnings during that month, and hold until Jan of next year.

The Worst Months Of The Year
August, September and the beginning of October are bad. 9/11 occurred during September, the crash of 1987 in September-October, the crash of 1929, September 2008…the closing of the books by the big funds occur in these months

My Worst Month Of The Year..only for the big momentum names… January. The most dreaded month for me. Most of my biggest losses have occurred in January and NOT in August, September and October.

Why? Because of tax selling. The leaders are pushed heavily into the last day of December, and when the first day of the New Year arrives, it’s sell-sell-sell the leaders. They’ve pushed them as far asthey can go, and will sell in January simply because “they” don’t want to pay taxes for the previous year in that year. I’ve seen rallies last into the middle of January, and when the earnings come out, it’s sell-sell-sell on the earnings results regardless of how good the reports might be

 

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The secret of many top analysts and traders...(in fact mutual fund managers, hedge fund traders and even a couple seat owners of the NYSE are subscribers!) Wavegenius.com. Ted "Wavegenius" Aguhob since 2001 has profited on 80%-88% of his trades EVERY year since the inception of his blogs and websites..Ted has made and incredible amount of calls during this period including: 1778% gain in 03-04 from swing trades, The 2009 bottom lows of S&P DOW and NASDAQ literally right on the number, the massive 3rd waves when SPX made it's run from just over 1000 to 2400+ that we're seeing now (these calls were written by Ernie Varitimos on articles on the FRONT PAGE of TheStreet.com, Yahoo Finance and MSN Money for a week), The exact all time low of Apple and Facebook and the huge move that followed on Youtube videos, and he's had Top 20 Charts of stocks that 90%-100% of the time were accurate...at the time the calls were considered insane to most and hundreds of his charts have been like that..until they actually happened...as a result Ted with a tiny audience made almost $177,000 in 2013 as one of the top earning blogs in the country. His following is beyond fanatical, and has been hidden away for many years with many websites and competitors refusing to partner with him..mostly because he'd walk in there and take away many subscribers and traffic from them...

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