**NASDAQ, RSI, VIX, SOX Elliott Wave Update – July 30, 2024: Bottom Requirements**
The market has been navigating a significant correction, and recent technical indicators suggest that a bottom may be forming. The NASDAQ, RSI, VIX, and SOX indices all show signs pointing towards the end of the corrective phase and the potential for a new bullish wave. Here’s an overview of the key signals and the conditions needed to confirm a market bottom.
### Key Indicators Pointing to a Potential Bottom:
1. **ABC Correction Reversal:**
The NASDAQ has completed an ABC correction pattern, with the C wave equaling the A wave in magnitude—a common termination point for such patterns. This completion is often followed by a reversal, indicating a possible end to the downtrend.
2. **RSI Readings:**
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) for the NASDAQ (NDX) reached 32.6, close to the 32.10 low seen during the previous Wave 2 correction. Such low RSI levels typically suggest the market is oversold and poised for a reversal.
3. **VIX Levels:**
The VIX, which measures market volatility, hit 19.50. This is slightly above the 19.44 peak observed previously, a level often associated with market bottoms in a longer-term bull market context. Elevated VIX readings can indicate heightened fear, which often precedes a market rebound.
4. **Stochastic Indicators:**
Both the Slow and Fast Stochastic Oscillators recently plunged into oversold territory, registering 0 and between 0-20, respectively. These readings imply that selling momentum may be exhausted, setting the stage for a potential upward reversal.
5. **S&P 500 Reversal:**
The S&P 500 also completed an ABC zigzag correction, with the index reversing after hitting the A = C level. This reversal aligns with the broader market indicators suggesting a bottom.
### Conditions Needed to Confirm a Bottom:
1. **.786 Reversal of the C Wave:**
The first key level to watch is the .786 retracement of the C wave, with ultimate resistance at 17,850. This level, approximately 400 points above the current market level, needs to be breached to signal a firm bottom. Breaking through this resistance would indicate a strong recovery from the correction.
2. **.786 Retracement of the Entire Zigzag:**
For a more definitive confirmation, the NASDAQ must break through the .786 retracement of the entire zigzag correction, targeting 18,400. Achieving this would suggest the market has fully absorbed the correction and is ready to resume its long-term uptrend.
3. **Potential Wave 3 of 3:**
The most optimistic scenario involves these breakouts leading to a Wave 3 of 3 up, which is typically the most powerful and extended wave in Elliott Wave theory. This would signal a robust bullish phase potentially lasting into the year-end, providing substantial upside.
In conclusion, while the market shows signs of bottoming, investors should wait for confirmation by monitoring key resistance levels. Breaking above 17,850 and subsequently 18,400 would provide strong evidence of a market bottom and a return to a bullish trajectory. Until then, caution is advised as the market continues to navigate through these critical levels.
