This is the morning 10-12PM Elliott Wave Forecast For 12.22.15 of the S&P 500 – The morning gap up hit 382 right on the number…the best case = bottom, worst case = 5th wave and bottom.
Best case scenario: We needed to retrace the drop from 2059 to 2007 in a 382 upward W4 to 2028-2030 and intraday we hit 2030. Best case is 2007 was the low and we don’t see the 5th wave and rally all the wave above 2045 or 618 of the drop from 2077 to 2007…last time we got a downward 3, there was no 5th wave at all and we bottomed.
Worst case scenario: Resistance at 2030 followed by a drop below 2013 setting up retest of 2007…and any of the multiple 5th wave scenarios occur..worst one would be 618 X w1 + w3 to test as low as 1987-1990 in that full 5th wave move. In either case however there would be at least a 618 reversal.
Where I’m leaning: [ms-protect-content id=”61,117″] 4 up 5 down and 618 reversal is what I’m expecting, but I don’t know if the 5th wave will truncate and reverse or drop to 1987-1990 first and reverse..those are the 2 most common 5th wave scenarios. [/ms-protect-content]